We recently published our numbers online showing that an estimated 2,636 children more children will be living in DoBro by 2018 and likely to attend public elementary schools. As of last year there were fewer than 400 available seats in the existing zoned schools.
Now another report prepared for the Brooklyn Community Board 2 and recently released confirms our assertion that there is not enough existing capacity for all the new children that will eventually call the neighborhood home (DUMBO and Brooklyn Heights also has problems as we’ve pointed out). The urban planning fellow assessed elementary school needs in CB2 and here are highlight of the report’s conclusions:
- “Various methods of projecting the population of the district in coming years suggest that the overall population and in particular, the youngest age groups will continue to grow at a significant rate. While the 2010 census recorded the population of the district as just below 100,000 people, a parabolic population projection performed for this report suggests that the population will grow to 114,000 by 2020, and to 132,000 by 2030.”
- “An analysis of residential development activity which examined all Department of Building permits that have been granted over a three year period show 2,831 dwelling units added, which would produce an estimated 821 new elementary students to the district’s schools in these three years alone.”
- “An analysis of the potential maximum build out of the vacant land in Community District 2 yields 7,839 dwelling units that would result if all the vacant land was used for new residential construction, which results in 2,273 new school age children.”
- “In addition to the continuing growth of residential building in the district, the implementation of mandatory kindergarten in the 2013-2014 school year is estimated to add 3,000 students to the school system city-wide which will add a number of students to elementary schools in the district.”
- “To address the rapidly growing elementary school age population in certain areas of the district the Department of Education must act quickly to add additional seats to accommodate these children. One to two new elementary schools should be created to serve the children of Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO and Brooklyn Heights.”
While our methods are slightly different (we looked at all residential units in DoBro that have been built + those being built or planned, and he looked at census trends and the amount of potential maximum buildout on unbuilt land in the CB 2 district) our conclusions are nearly the same:
- There are more children moving to Downtown Brooklyn (and DUMBO and Brooklyn Heights) than the existing schools can absorb.
- The city needs to act now before the problem becomes acute down the road.
Download the report here (22MB PDF): Elementary School Needs in Brooklyn Community District 2, May 2013
Thanks to the CB2 Youth and Education committee for inviting use to present our findings at the same meeting that this report was presented.